Unpacking the Numeracy Gap: A Mediation Analysis of Gender, Socioeconomic Status, and Mathematics Achievement in the UK PISA 2022 Data

• Dr. Elowen J. Carminster

  Department of Education, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

  Author

• Dr. Halric D. Fenmere

  Institute of Education, University College London (UCL), London, United Kingdom

  Author

Achievement gaps in mathematics linked to socioeconomic status (SES) and gender remain a persistent concern in education. This study investigates the underlying psychosocial mechanisms that explain these disparities among 15-year-old students in the United Kingdom. Using data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2022, we employ structural equation modeling to test a mediation model grounded in Mindset Theory and Control-Value Theory. The model posits that the relationships between the predictor variables (gender, SES) and the outcome variable (mathematics achievement) are mediated by four key psychosocial factors: mathematics anxiety, growth mindset, perceived teacher support, and mathematics self-efficacy. The results indicated that both SES and gender were significant direct predictors of mathematics achievement. Furthermore, the analysis revealed significant indirect effects. The relationship between SES and achievement was partially mediated by math anxiety and math self-efficacy. The relationship between gender and achievement was partially mediated by math anxiety, growth mindset, and math self-efficacy. Teacher support did not emerge as a significant mediator in this model but was correlated with other key variables. These findings underscore the critical role of students' beliefs and emotions in shaping academic outcomes. They suggest that educational interventions aimed at fostering a growth mindset, enhancing self-efficacy, and reducing mathematics anxiety could be effective pathways to promoting greater equity in mathematics education.

Auwarter, A. E., & Aruguete, M. S. (2008). Effects of student gender and socioeconomic status on teacher perceptions. The Journal of Educational Research, 101(4), 242–246.

Arztmann, M., Domínguez Alfaro, J. L., Hornstra, L., Jeuring, J., & Kester, L. (2024). In-game performance: The role of students’ socio-economic status, self-efficacy and situational interest in an augmented reality game. British Journal of Educational Technology, 55(2), 484–498.

Baker, E. H. (2014). Socioeconomic status, definition. The Wiley Blackwell encyclopedia of health, illness, behavior, and society (pp. 2210–2214).

Bakchich, J. (2024). Fostering sense of belonging to school among low and high socioeconomic status students: Examining the role of teacher social support and growth mindset in educational settings. Université Savoie Mont Blanc. Doctoral dissertation.

Burnette, J. L., Billingsley, J., Banks, G. C., Knouse, L. E., Hoyt, C. L., Pollack, J. M., & Simon, S. (2023). A systematic review and meta-analysis of growth mindset interventions: For whom, how, and why might such interventions work? Psychological Bulletin, 149(3–4), 174.

Cesnaviciene, J., Buksnyte-Marmiene, L., & Brandisauskiene, A. (2022). The importance of teacher support and equity in student engagement and achievement in low SES school contexts. The New Educational Review, 69, 157–169.

Chang, Y. L. (2015). Examining relationships among elementary mathematics teacher efficacy and their students’ mathematics self-efficacy and achievement. Eurasia Journal of Mathematics, Science and Technology Education, 11(6), 1307–1320.

Chen, C., Shen, T., Tang, S., Gao, Y., & Wang, D. (2024). Personal belief in a just world and the growth mindset in Chinese adolescence: Prospective between-person and within-person associations. Applied Research in Quality of Life, 19(5), 2447–2465.

Coates, A. (2025). Tracking mathematics achievement gaps in England: Gender, socioeconomic status and ethnicity. British Educational Research Journal. https://doi.org/10.1002/berj.4117

Cox, J., & Jacobson, E. (2020). Mathematics anxiety as a mediator for gender differences in 2012 PISA mathematics scores. North American Chapter of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education.

David, A.K. (2024). SEM: Mediation. https://davidakenny.net/cm/mediate.htm.

Degol, J. L., Wang, M. T., Zhang, Y., & Allerton, J. (2018). Do growth mindsets in math benefit females? Identifying pathways between gender, mindset, and motivation. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 47, 976–990.

Department for Education (2021). PISA 2018: national report for England.

Dersch, A. S., Heyder, A., & Eitel, A. (2022). Exploring the nature of teachers’ math-gender stereotypes: The math-gender misconception questionnaire. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, Article 820254.

Destin, M., Hanselman, P., Buontempo, J., Tipton, E., & Yeager, D. S. (2019). Do student mindsets differ by socioeconomic status and explain disparities in academic achievement in the United States? AERA Open, 5(3), Article 2332858419857706.

Dong, L., Jia, X., & Fei, Y. (2023). How growth mindset influences mathematics achievements: A study of Chinese middle school students. Frontiers in Psychology, 14, Article 1148754.

Dweck, C. S. (2006). Mindset: The new psychology of success. Random house.

Dweck, C. (2015). Carol Dweck revisits the growth mindset. Education Week, 35(5), 20–24.

Fisher, M. H., & Royster, D. (2016). Mathematics teachers’ support and retention: Using Maslow’s hierarchy to understand teachers’ needs. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 47(7), 993–1008.

Gunderson, E. A., Park, D., Maloney, E. A., Beilock, S. L., & Levine, S. C. (2018). Reciprocal relations among motivational frameworks, math anxiety, and math achievement in early elementary school. Journal of Cognition and Development, 19(1), 21–46.

Guzmán, B., Rodríguez, C., & Ferreira, R. A. (2021). Longitudinal performance in basic numerical skills mediates the relationship between socio-economic status and mathematics anxiety: Evidence from Chile. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, Article 611395.

Hu, L. T., & Bentler, P. M. (1999). Cutoff criteria for fit indexes in covariance structure analysis: Conventional criteria versus new alternatives. Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal, 6(1), 1–55.

Hyde, J. S., Fennema, E., & Lamon, S. J. (1990). Gender differences in mathematics performance: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 107(2), 139.

İdil, S¸., Gülen, S., & Donmez, ¨ I. (2024). What should we understand from PISA 2022 results? Journal of STEAM Education, 7(1), 1–9.

James-Brabham, E. (2022). How do socioeconomic attainment gaps in early mathematical ability arise? An exploration into the home environment, executive functions, and verbal ability. University of Sheffield. Doctoral dissertation.

Jerrim, J. (2021). How is life as a recently qualified teacher? New evidence from a longitudinal cohort study in England. British Journal of Educational Studies, 69(1), 3–23.

Kalaycioglu, D. B. (2015). The influence of socioeconomic status, self-efficacy, and anxiety on mathematics achievement in England, Greece, Hong Kong, The Netherlands, Turkey, and the USA. Educational Sciences: Theory and Practice, 15(5), 1391–1401.

Klee, D., Memmott, T., Smedemark-Margulies, N., Celik, B., Erdogmus, D., & Oken, B. S. (2022). Target-related alpha attenuation in a brain-computer interface rapid serial visual presentation calibration. Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 16, Article 882557.

LeGere, L. (2023). Perceptions of teachers regarding instructional strategies for low SES students. Walden University. Doctoral dissertation.

Li, H., Zhang, A., Zhang, M., Huang, B., Zhao, X., Gao, J., & Si, J. (2021). Concurrent and longitudinal associations between parental educational involvement, teacher support, and math anxiety: The role of math learning involvement in elementary school children. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 66, Article 101984.

Liao, W., Wang, C., Zhou, J., Cui, Z., Sun, X., Bo, Y., Xu, M., & Dang, Q. (2022). Effects of equity-oriented teacher education on preservice teachers: A systematic review. Teaching and Teacher Education, 119, 103844.

Lindberg, S. M., Hyde, J. S., Petersen, J. L., & Linn, M. C. (2010). New trends in gender and mathematics performance: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 136(6), 1123.

Lindner, J., Makarova, E., Bernhard, D., & Brovelli, D. (2022). Toward gender equality in education—Teachers’ beliefs about gender and math. Education Sciences, 12(6), 373.

Luttenberger, S., Wimmer, S., & Paechter, M. (2018). Spotlight on math anxiety. Psychology Research And Behavior Management, 11, 311–322. https://doi.org/10.2147/PRBM.S141421

Mapulanga, T., & Bwalya, A. (2025). Gender differences in secondary school students’ perceptions of teaching practices used in biology classrooms. African Journal of Research in Mathematics, Science and Technology Education, 29(1), 1–12.

Muthén, L. K., & Muthén, B. (2017). Mplus user’s guide: Statistical analysis with latent variables. Wiley.

OECD. (2023). PISA 2022 technical report. OECD Publishing. Retrieved May 21, 2024 https://www.oecd.org/pisa/data/pisa2022technicalreport.

Pekrun, R. (2006). The control-value theory of achievement emotions: Assumptions, corollaries, and implications for educational research and practice. Educational Psychology Review, 18, 315–341.

Pellizzoni, S., Cargnelutti, E., Cuder, A., & Passolunghi, M. C. (2022). The interplay between math anxiety and working memory on math performance: A longitudinal study. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1510(1), 132–144.

Samuel, T. S., & Warner, J. (2021). I can math!”: Reducing math anxiety and increasing math self-efficacy using a mindfulness and growth mindset-based intervention in first-year students. Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 45(3), 205–222.

Sherwin, T. (2020). Math anxiety and growth mindset: Building teacher efficacy.

Svraka, B., & Ad´ ´am, S. (2024). Examining mathematics learning abilities as a function of socioeconomic status, achievement and anxiety. Education Sciences, 14(6), 668.

Tsui, M. (2007). Gender and mathematics achievement in China and the United States. Gender Issues, 24, 1–11.

Vestad, L., & Bru, E. (2024). Teachers’ support for growth mindset and its links with students’ growth mindset, academic engagement, and achievements in lower secondary school. Social Psychology of Education, 27(4), 1431–1454.

Wang, C., Xu, Q., & Fei, W. Q. (2024). The effect of student-perceived teacher support on math anxiety: Chain mediation of teacher–student relationship and math self-efficacy. Frontiers in Psychology, 15, Article 1333012.

Wang, L. (2020). Mediation relationships among gender, spatial ability, math anxiety, and math achievement. Educational Psychology Review, 32(1), 1–15.

Wang, L., Li, X., & Li, N. (2014). Socio-economic status and mathematics achievement in China: A review. ZDM: The International Journal on Mathematics Education, 46, 1051–1060.

World Bank. (2023). Gini index (World Bank estimate). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI.

Xie, F., Xin, Z., Chen, X., & Zhang, L. (2019). Gender difference of Chinese high school students’ math anxiety: The effects of self-esteem, test anxiety and general anxiety. Sex Roles, 81, 235–244.

Yeager, D. S., & Dweck, C. S. (2020). What can be learned from growth mindset controversies? American Psychologist, 75(9), 1269.

Yu, R., & Singh, K. (2018). Teacher support, instructional practices, student motivation, and mathematics achievement in high school. The Journal of Educational Research, 111(1), 81–94.

Zivković, M., Pellizzoni, S., Doz, E., Cuder, A., Mammarella, I., & Passolunghi, M. C. (2023). Math self-efficacy or anxiety? The role of emotional and motivational contribution in math performance. Social Psychology of Education, 26(3), 579–601.

• pdf

All articles published by The Parthenon Frontiers and its associated journals are distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) International License unless otherwise stated. 

Authors retain full copyright of their published work. By submitting their manuscript, authors agree to grant The Parthenon Frontiers a non-exclusive license to publish, archive, and distribute the article worldwide. Authors are free to:

• Share their article on personal websites, institutional repositories, or social media platforms.

• Reuse their content in future works, presentations, or educational materials, provided proper citation of the original publication.